Putin knows that Rada will be manned with the pro-European forces which is why he will seek to disrupt the coming elections – Alexey Garan

InterPressNews sat down with Ukrainian political expert and professor at Kiev Academy, Alexey Garan, to discuss the outcome of the second meeting in Minsk, the results of President Poroskenko’s visit to the U.S. and Canada as well as other acute issues.

--How would you evaluate the outcome of the second meeting in Minsk?

-- Cease-fire agreements are clearly of paramount significance; however, unfortunately, the fighters have refused to comply with the agreement thus far. It stipulates, heavy artillery must be withdrawn from Ukraine, and this, obviously, plays into the hands of Ukraine as Russia will be forced to pull back all artillery -- which it has provided the fighters -- from the country.

An obligation which the agreement imposes on Russia to call out the military pisions of Chechen soldiers and other hired servicemen is also auspicious for Ukraine. However, it is difficult to predict whether or not Russia will fulfill this obligation especially in light of the fact that the Russian leader and the separatists have refused to accomplish all obligations with which they have bound themselves so far.

-- Many of us have described the agreements finalized in Minsk as Petro Poroshenko’s fiasco and Ukraine’s surrender…Not so long ago the Ukrainian experts alleged that Ukraine would have never repeated Georgia’s mistakes. However, time has shown that they were bitterly mistaken. The Minsk agreements are not a far cry from those agreements and decrees which Russia imposed on Georgia once…

- If we go into details and carefully examine the Minsk agreements, we will find out that they are unlikely to produce only negative repercussions in Ukraine; although they can also pose some threats for this country. Namely, the Law on Local Self-Government Bodies that is applicable to some regions of Donbas is rather dangerous, as this law can grant legitimacy to fighters after the elections... However, if Russia-Ukraine border is closed and international control is established there, this can be regarded as a diplomatic feat from the Ukrainian leaders and a great accomplishment of Ukraine. In my mind, Ukraine and the West as well as Russia and the West have started to play a big diplomatic game.

- Some experts claim that President Poroshenko and Kiev have succeeded in developing military conflict into a political one, and in the wake of this, Kiev’s chances to gain a victory has increased. What kind of a comment could you make regarding this issue?

- Precisely this is Poroshenko’s strategy; he is very well aware of the fact that he cannot get the better of Russia in a military conflict. He knows that Putin can send military forces as well as equipment into Ukraine every single day. At the same time, some risks are also posed for this country. A great deal of levers, including supplying Ukraine with natural gas, Rada elections as well as trade issues, enabling Russia to exert influence on Ukraine is also in the hands of Putin. However, a core matter on which we can focus now is that Putin’s plans that have been confound. Putin hoped that he would manage to tear Ukraine apart; however, his hopes have been dashed. Moreover, he announced that in two weeks time, he could take over Kiev; he has failed to realize this plan though. He also threatened that he would cut a corridor via Mariupol, to bridge Russia with Crimea; he has not managed to translate this intention into action though. This is the reason why I don’t rule out that Russia will ignore the agreements of Minsk and will carry out a new military strike against Ukraine. One thing is clear today – Russia’s plans have been fouled. The separatists backed by Russia control only 1/3 of Donbas.

-- But, it’s also worth mentioning that the territories controlled by the separatists incorporate the factories as well as other resources thanks to which Ukraine has channeled funds to its budget.

- It’s true a great deal of products is really being exported from Donbas. However, these products are being manufactured in the metallurgical factories receiving cheap energy from Russia. In addition, we must also keep in mind that Donbas gets large donations from Kiev. Anyway, now it’s clear that many of those territories on which these enterprises are located are occupied and this creates big problems for the Ukrainian leaders.

-- What would you say regarding the situation in the antiterrorist operation zone?

- Russia and its advocate fighters have ridden roughshod over the agreement. Anyway, the situation in the anti-terrorist operation zone has remained perplexed. It’s clear that Russia is a rather tough nut to crack.

-- In your opinion, what has Russia achieved so far?

- Russia is trying to freeze the conflict. The Kremlin has realized that its plans have turned out impracticable as they have not managed to split Ukraine. Now Russia is trying its best to assume control on Donbas; in this way its wants to wield influence on Ukraine.

-- Despite this, Russia has failed to make Ukraine turn its back on NATO; Ukraine has been involved in an active cooperation with the EU and the Alliance member countries thus far …

-- If judging realistically, we will guess that NATO is not ready to “embrace” Ukraine. At this point in time, neither Ukraine nor Georgia is on track to NATO membership.

As for the EU, an agreement with Ukraine has already been ratified in Rada. In addition, they have put their intention to establish tariffs on the Ukrainian products for a year on hold, and Ukraine can also use this situation to its own advantage. As custom fees will not be levied on the Ukrainian products; at the same time, tariffs have remained in force for the production exported in Ukraine. Thus, threats to Ukraine’s economy are not tangible at this point in time.

- Rada elections are only a month away. What could you say regarding the power balance in Ukraine?

-- Putin plans to disrupt the Rada elections. The Kremlin knows perfectly well that these elections will free the country from the Fifth Column. However, it’s clear that the pro-Russian forces and adherents of the Kremlin will hardly manage to sneak into the present Rada.

It’s clear that Rada will mainly be manned with the pro-European forces. From my point of view, President Poroshenko and Premier Yatseniyk are holding up well and doing a good job in these hard times. However, they decided to participate in the elections with their own parties. This is not a tragedy though. If Poroshenko does not manage to sweep enough votes, he will create a coalition government; on this occasion, the Premier with its team will be its political partner…

Whether this way or that, Putin knows perfectly well that Rada will be manned with the pro-European forces; however, he will endeavor to disrupt these elections.

- In your opinion, will these elections be conducted in Donetsk and Luhansk?

- In these districts, the parliamentary elections are likely to be held only in those regions that are under the control of fighters. Voter turnout may not be high here; however, the elections here will be held anyway.

- President Poroshenko’s visit has turned out rather successful in Canada and America. Has this visit lived up to your expectations?

- One of the core characteristics of this visit that has singled it out from the already held ones is that it was held behind the scenes. This visit has once again persuaded us to think that Ukraine stands a strong chance of broadening its relations with the U.S. As far as I can guess, some serious military and technical agreements have been sewn up with America; all details regarding these deals are being kept under wraps though; although absolutely nothing is wrong regarding this fact. They have also declared that Geneva negotiations will also be resumed, and this is really of utmost importance for Ukraine.

- Some expert maintain, the fact that Washington and Obama have held back from getting themselves involved in a dialogue with Putin regarding Ukraine as well as other countries of post-Soviet space has annoyed him. Does this allegation ring true?

- It’s obvious that the Russian strongman wants to discuss these topics behind closed doors without Kiev and Tbilisi. Against this backdrop, economic sanctions imposed on Russia are of paramount significance. It’s also true that the West has failed to give a timely response to Russia’s actions and to take a strong stand against the aggressor for its incursion into Ukraine; however, the western leaders have still made a rather serious decision and, most importantly, this decision has been made unanimously.

Koba Bendeliani 

InterPressNews