Ukraine’s present developments have eliminated all prospects of realizing the Eurasian Union project
-The eyes of the entire world have been set on Ukraine; we have been left with the impression that Russia’s plans with respect to this country have been reframed. At first the Russian leader aimed to thwart Ukraine in joining the EU, later he threw the subject of merging NovoRossiya (New Russia) with Russia into the mix. These talks were followed by annexation of Crimea. In the wake of a harsh response from the West, the Kremlin set out to provide the separatists in Ukraine’s eastern regions with support and assistance. However, after the 7 May meeting between the Russian leader and his Swiss counterpart, we have been left with the impression that Putin proposed certain amendments to his action plan outlined for Ukraine. In your opinion, does this allegation ring true and if so, what has made Putin take this step?
- In my mind, domestic political intentions are what pushed the Kremlin to take some steps in Ukraine; Russia’s actions have resulted in the present status quo in the country. In this respect, the Kremlin has chased a well-intentioned plan to aggravate conflict with the West and, in this way, to find a panacea for its present problems inside the state. His policy has enabled the Russian leader to win the public’s goodwill as well as to protect the country from foreign rivals. An underdeveloped economy has also helped Putin’s tycoons to preside over the country’s economy.
Obviously, we could have been faced with a different status quo today; Russia could have been impeded from seizing Crimea. However, the actual fact is that, Mr. Putin has elaborated his plan to confront the West long ago; and this plan was to be executed whatever it took. That is the reason why I can firmly state that in relation to Ukraine, the Kremlin has maintained its position. It has only maneuvered to avert another set of sanctions; otherwise, no principal changes have occurred in the already hatched plan. Alongside this, Russia must be attempting to incite a rift between the U.S. and different European states which have not adopted a similar stance regarding the sanctions against Russia. As you know, these countries are involved in close cooperation with Russia and any sanction exercised against the latter can wither them too.
Russia has retained the same posture in reference to Ukraine – the Russian leader still longs to exercise dominance on this country; however, as it appears, the West is not going to give up by allowing Russia to translate its plans into actions. Thus, in the present state of affairs, Ukraine is strongly expected to be pided, and its eastern regions are likely to fall into Russia’s hands. Today we see what an arduous effort Russia has exerted to build a wall separating it from the West; and the latter has also not refused to support the Russian leader in doing this.
- Recently, one of the British experts stated that the Western states are oscillating between paranoia and stupidity; this means that the Russian leadership has not even felt the impact of those sanctions that have become a part of ongoing debates and harsh discussions. Is this allegation close to the truth?
- I cannot agree with this statement. On the contrary, I do think that these sanctions and the West’s present stance, its attitude towards this country will seriously impact Russia’s policy and batter its economy. However, the other side of the coin is that the Kremlin has anticipated all this in advance and, thus, these sanctions could not have exerted their affects on its economy, especially in the short run. I also do not exclude that these sanctions fall within Russia’s interests; precisely thanks to tem, the Russian leadership can easily dump its troubles on the West and hold it accountable for its present domestic problems.
I am deeply convinced that in the future, the already set sanction against Russia will have a detrimental affect on the Russian people, the vast majority of which have proven to support Putin’s policy with regard to Ukraine.
- Many announcements have been released regarding Russia’s shattered economy today. As Premier Medvedev has predicted, Russia’s economic growth is unlikely to exceed 0.5 %. On top of that, the European bank also says that capital flight from Russia has hit $220bn; reportedly, Russia has spent as much as 100bn USD to maintain the ruble’s value against the USD. In parallel to this, rumors fly that from June 1, the Russian banks will cease to serve visa and master card owners; GPS operators are also intended to be banned from operating in the territory of Russia. What could you say regarding the country’s economy today? Is Moscow geared up to proclaim an economic war with the West?
- From my viewpoint all kinds of allegations saying that Russia’s economy has been thrown from the proverbial cliff are unfounded. And in the short term perspective, Russia’s economy, regardless of the fact that it has dwelt in stagnation, cannot pose serious threats to the regime; neither can it cause serious troubles in the country. In the present state of play, the Government can easily reject its populist plans that are being executed today.
However, the issue which deserved your acute attention and the fact that investments in Russia have been substantially undercut is a horse of an entirely different color. It’s without question that the core income which Russia gets from its energy export will be cut in the future. At this point in time, this risk is actually posed to Russia. However, a bet is made on the East, and all of Russia’s steps are well thought out beforehand. It is not difficult to guess that Russia’s self-isolation and its decision to close its market for western produce that is much more competitive than that of Russia’s will somehow facilitate the advancement of this state as well as the exploitation of its reserves to the limit. In the wake of this, the banking and Revenue system will also be more safeguarded from external influence. Clearly though, Russia will not manage to invest its financial resources in production and reproduction. In the future, Russia’s economy is strongly expected to be shattered, its effectiveness will fall, and in parallel to this the standard of life in the country will worsen. And all these mishaps of Russia will be the result of Russia’s inaptitude to carry out investments in production.
-On 21 May, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin left his country for China, where a serious package on economic cooperation between the two states is planned to be signed. Can this happenstance push us to deduce that Vladimir Putin refused to involve himself in collaboration with the West once and for all? And can this mean that the Russian “Slavophiles” has gotten the better of “Zapadniks” in the two hundred year battle?
-The Asian and Chinese vectors do naturally have their affect on this long battle. Russia cannot simply make a choice between the West and China; and you know why such kind of possibility does not exist for Russia today? The fact that whether or not Russia’s political upper crust wants to admit this, their country remains to be an inalienable part of Christian civilization. No matter how desperately Russia will affront Europe or berate it, it will never prove able to break ties with the west; neither will it manage to adopt China as its junior partner state and completely turn its back on Europe; this is simply excluded.
Russia has already made a bet on China and the eastern vector; however, this decision from Russia must be defined as hasty; Russia has decided to negotiate an economic deal with China only after the confrontation between it and the West has exacerbated; and now it will have to accept Beijing’s proposal on shipping its natural gas to this country for a rather low price. I do not think that Russia will retain its present stance for long. I am sure that the Russian leader will rethink his present strategy in the short run. This will not be a simple process though; in order to do this, and to return the hopes of Russia’s political modernization and development, Russia will have to surmount really serious predicaments.
- Presidential elections are planned to be held in Ukraine on May 25. The Kremlin’s attitude towards these elections is known worldwide. The British Foreign Minister has once again starkly warned Putin not to move against the Ukrainians and abstain from disrupting the forthcoming elections in the country. So, if the elections are called for in the eastern regions of Ukraine, do you think Russia will recognize the outcome? What kind of political picture we will face in Ukraine after these elections are conducted?
- The allegation saying that Russia has refused to meddle in the strife between the eastern regions of Ukraine and Kiev is far from the truth. On the contrary, precisely Russia has ignited this conflict between the two opposing parties. As it appears, those at the helm of Kiev cannot simply take the interests of Ukraine’s eastern regions into account. In the present state of play, Moscow simply does not need to prevent Ukraine from putting a legitimate Government in power. It’s evident that these elections will not result in any substantial change in the country – the present political elite will still rule the roost here. Thus, the hopes that after the elections the situation will be ameliorated in the country are ephemeral. This will take a lot of doing, and elections alone can change absolutely nothing here.
- As you have pointed out, the Kremlin’s steps in Ukraine were prompted by the Russian leader’s desire to eradicate domestic problems in the country. The Russian people have urged Putin to take more effective and aim-oriented steps. Many of them also allege that if Putin gives a cold shoulder to his people “the Euro Maidan revolution flames” may engulf Russia too. In your opinion, does this allegation correspond with reality?
-Russia’s leadership may have not comprehended yet that their country has already passed several crossroads. The Russian authorities might not have realized that Ukraine’s present developments have eliminated all prospects of realizing the Eurasian Union project for good. In fact, a choice between a national state and empire has already been made in favor of the former. And this choice has caused domestic political problems. Today’s Russia --which has been based on a multi-ethnic society -- remains a remnant of the glorious Russian empire.
Needless to say, the nationalist Russian forces have serious potential and can serve as a stumbling block for the county’s political advancement. I do not exclude that one beautiful day precisely these powers will force the Russian political leaders out of office and replace them.
-We have been left with the impression that Russia cannot find time to deal with Georgia at this point in time. But still we would like to know, in your opinion, will “Ukraine’s Drama” make Russia amend its policy in terms of our country?
- I think that the variable relations between Russia and the West will more easily result in the change of Russia’s stance to Georgia than the present situation in Ukraine.
At this point, Russia does not need to pose as a democratic state. Neither does it need to prove anything to anyone. I would say that Russia has adopted a more pragmatic, more precise, more cynical stance; as you see, Russia has not found it troublesome to wash its hands of the already recognized International standards and norms. This country has unmasked its true face and, in the wake of this, has almost deprived the international organizations of a possibility to somehow control its foreign policy.
As you yourself see, each and every neighbor state of Russia has deemed it as a serious threat to their safety, and has viewed NATO as the only salvation enabling them to stay beyond this belligerent country’s reach.
Koba Bendeliani
InterPressNews
