Interpressnews spoke with George Katcharava, International Security and International Relations Specialist, on foreign policy related issues.

- Mr. Katcharava, after a 5-month delay, the US Congress with 311 votes approved USD 61 billion worth assistance package in support of Ukraine. The U.S. Senate on Tuesday is voting on this Congressional decision, and it is expected the same day the bill will land on President Biden's desk the final signature. It is already known that military equipment will be delivered step by step until December 31, 2024. After the assistance package will undergo all approval procedures, what aid will Ukraine receive from the United States?

- Adoption this aid package is a really important breakthrough given the current political situation in the United States. It would be fair to touch upon some intricacies that this whole process went through. I must say that delayed and stretched in time process has been conditioned to the crisis that Republican party is experiencing. This powerful and influential political force is deeply divided, and this has become even more evident in the light of the election year. Unfortunately, it appears that Ukraine assistance package approval process have fallen victim to the given circumstances within American political elite. Lately we have witnessed a very positive change in the position and attitude of House Speaker Mike Johnson, followed by the introduction of aid to Ukraine in the Congressional agenda. Of course, such a positive decision did not happen on its own. This is the result of a scrupulous and long-standing advocacy campaign of various influential and important groups on different platforms, using different forms and networks. Obviously, official information that high ranking officials are receiving through confidential channels has also contributed to the given outcome. Nonetheless the success of such a campaign, among others, was stipulated by revealing crimes and misconduct by the Russian forces towards peaceful population of Ukraine, especially concerning different religious groups. Make no mistake, this could not pass without notice and caused legitimate outrage among Evangelical Christian circles in the United States. Speaker Johnson as a deeply devoted Christian could not turn a deaf ear towards appalling situation. As a result of multifaceted and active advocacy, Speaker Johnson as well as good number of his fellow Republican members of house of Representatives chose the side of the light, even though such a choice could cost him a post. In addition, it was important to unite and engage politically active bipartisan groups in the mentioned process, who understand the cost of the war in Ukraine, for global security and stability, and how intertwined the issue is with the ongoing processes in other regions of the world. Therefore, this is an important and landmark decision that can bring instantly positive dynamics directly to the battlefield in Ukraine. Obviously, the bill should pass approval procedures in the Senate as well, but no one seems to expect any troubles within the Senate, as well as in terms of President Biden's signature on Thus, it is highly likely that the Ukraine assistance package will be launched as soon as possible, paving the way for the immediate weapons’ delivery.

It should be well understood that USD 61 billion assistance package includes about USD 47 billion direct military aid. This is a huge resource that will contribute to a sharp improvement in Ukraine's defense capabilities, like air defense systems and ammunition, as well as armored vehicvles. But, in my opinion, the most important is that under this assistance U.S. will provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, which can play crucial role on the ground.

In addition, let's not forget about the assistance European allies are providing, which includes fighter jets and additional air defense systems and a large number of artillery shells. Such an important and sizable assistance package which includes significant military part can have a substantial impact on the frontline.

- While the list of assistance items is quite impressive, the predictions of some military experts on how the processes will unfold on the battlefield look quite modest.

I have in mind that most of them suggest that despite receiving weapons, the status quo will be maintained on the frontline of Ukraine-Russia war.

How do you see developments in the battlefield of Russo-Ukrainian war?

- The ongoing fighting in Ukraine has long been transitioned into positional confrontation, or trench war, where Russia has the advantage at the moment, both in terms of ammunition and in terms of the number of troops. It also has to be said that Russia has some advantage in the air as well. All these factors combined contributed to some Russian advances that we have been witnessed lately.

Under current circumstances, the assistance provided to Ukraine will first help stabilize the frontline, as well as strengthen the air defense system. In addition, by receiving a certain number of fighter jets, Ukraine will have the opportunity to better protect the country's airspace and prevent Russian air force from carrying out frontal operations.

All these will create some prerequisite conditions for future successful operations for the Ukrainian military. Although, it is also worth noting that Ukraine managed to increase its military production, which reaches USD 20 billion annually, which is significant, since its able to produce ammunition, self-propelled artillery systems, not to mention that Ukraine produces 90% of needed high-tech drones. On the latter, it worth mentioning that Ukraine pioneered maritime drone warfare, becoming current leader in this area, assuring asymmetric strikes that pushed Black Fleet of Russian Federation to leave its naval basis in Crimea peninsula. We also see significant progress re airborne drones made using Artificial Intelligence technology. At the end we see that technologically Ukrainian military are advancing very rapidly and with international support can achieve substantial results.

- After Iran carried out strikes on Israel, the already complicated situation in the Middle East became even worse. Once Iran has carried out strikes on Israel, Israeli political and military leadership announced on the same day that Israel will respond to Iran, but on a later stage.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has allocated USD 26 billion to help Israel. What did Iran's attack on Israel show?

- It is unequivocal that this was the first direct attack carried out by the Islamic Republic on Israel. Many aspects related to this very operation can be considered unprecedented. The Islamic Republic military forces appear to have carried out about 300 different types of aero ballistic projectiles launched against Israel.

It is also worth noting that such an action by the Islamic Republic has shown that it has the ability to carry out such a large-scale operation. It should also be indicated that by carrying out such an act, the Islamic Republic showed its influence over the region, being able to launch missiles and drones against Israel from several countries in the region.

On the other hand, United States in a very short period of time was able to compile coalition of allies, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia to counter the threats coming from Islamic Republic. Thus, Israeli Defense Forces, were aided by the U.S., the UK, Saudi Arabia and Jordan militaries that directly participated in the repulsion of the attack, jointly reaching unprecedented over 90 per cent destruction rate against air targets launched by Islamic republic.

Facilitating establishment of such an ad-hoc coalition in a short period of time, especially given the tense situation in the region, including the existing unresolved issues among its members, clearly shows U.S. global leadership abilities.

Therefore, as a matter of fact, reaction of regional actors as well as U.S. and U.K. coupled with demonstration of technological superiority sends a very clear message, that allied forces and their governments will do what it takes to prevent large-scale escalation and spillover of instability in the Middle East.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia's actions have made its long-standing disagreement with the Islamic Republic apparent and have shown low tolerance for such actions, despite the agreement reached by China a few years ago.

Such a development optimistically speaking could bring back discussions on the Abraham Accords, which was suspended as a result of Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel.

- Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Armenia will hand over to Azerbaijan the villages that belonged to Azerbaijan before the collapse of the USSR. In addition, the process of demarcation of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia began.

In the wake of these events, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces from Karabakh began. After Azerbaijan fully restored Baku's jurisdiction over Karabakh, they should have left before, but their departure was announced only now.

And this happens in a situation where the Russians wanted to establish control over the Zangezur corridor to Azerbaijan, but strong players asked Azerbaijan to refrain from conducting military operation on the Iran-Armenia border.

Why Russia is withdrawing its troops from Karabakh now? Where will they likely go?

- I look at this issue in a simple manner, without any conspiracy. Russian troops have no function due to the situation on the ground that was established as of September 2023. In addition, Russia has a greater need for military forces elsewhere. This applies not only to the war theater in Ukraine, but also to the northwestern territories of the Russian Federation.

As you know, after Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the decision has been made to restore Leningrad Military District. The main task for this new military structure should be, deterrence of the NATO forces, deployed near Russian borderline with Finland. Therefore, it is quite possible that the unit withdrawn from Karabakh will join the process of formation of the newly restored Leningrad military district.

Of course, the above represents my personal assumption. Although, withdrawal of Russian troops is stipulated and attributed not only to lack of functionality, but also to the fact that Azerbaijani armed forces created such conditions on the ground, under which, presence of Russian troops would not have any sense.

It should be noted that interesting processes are underway within the framework of the process of demarcation and delimitation of the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. As you know, through Armenian officials, it became known that Armenia is handing over to Azerbaijan four villages of Tavush region, since the territory legally belongs to Azerbaijan.

This is undoubtedly worthy of a positive assessment, as representatives of the two countries managed and agreed on a territorial issue at the negotiating table for the first time. Although this covers a small section of the borderline, the trend for a peaceful resolution of disputed issues between the two neighboring countries is an important development for the region.

Such approaches, in turn, reduce the likelihood of military confrontation, which will have a positive impact on regional peace and stability.

- If we go back to the Israeli topic, after the US made the decision to help Israel with USD 26 billion, the question is likely to be - when Israel will respond to the Iran’s attack.

Is Israel's retaliatory response on Iran is to be expected? How high is the likelihood that the Israeli-Iranan confrontation will put the already fragile world in an even more difficult situation if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities?

- Interesting question. A few days ago, Israeli military carried out a limited strike on facilities inside the territory of the Islamic Republic. There is very little information on this attack. As is known, strikes were carried out at military facilities located in the Isfahan and Tabriz areas. Apparently, reportedly the Russian-made S-300 type air defense system was destroyed.

What is noteworthy regarding this operation? First of all, the Israeli side carried out an attack that was very limited in its scope. On the other hand, it appears that the missiles used by Israel, its launching point, as well as the military aircrafts that delivered said missiles were not detected by the air defense systems of the Islamic Republic.

In addition, the targets and their location, selected by the Israeli Defense Forces, appears to be related to the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. According to expert opinions, this type of operation represents a warning message, in order to avoid undesirable consequences in the future. Therefore, perhaps this act can be viewed as Israel's response to the attack on the Islamic Republic.

Such a limited scale Israeli response could have twofold justification. Firstly, the position of the United States and President Biden personally opposing full-scale Israeli retaliation. On the other hand, avoiding the threat of large scale military escalation in a very vulnerable region of Middle East.

It seems both justifications were taken into account during preparation for the Israeli response as ut looks like a surgical intervention, as a result of which the message has reached the addressee and importantly regional destabilization and military escalation have also been avoided.

Interpressnews

Koba Bendeliani